My Amazingly Accurate and Not at All Biased Mock Draft by Corwin Heller

I love the draft, it’s as simple as that. Starting in December at the conclusion to the regular season, I start putting together mock drafts of what I think will happen with the NFL Draft. I update once or twice a month as the offseason progresses and more and more information about prospects come out. “Late Risers” and “Hot Prospects” will move up and down the board but in reality, this isn’t due to changing opinions by scouts, just that information is finally making its way to the media. By the end of the first round on Thursday this will end up looking crazy, like most other mocks, but this is what I think will most likely play out during the draft. This is finals week for me, so instead of studying I am choosing to write this…send your prayers.

I would love to heard feedback from you guys so make sure to comment with your thoughts.

Pick 1 – Cleveland Browns

Sam Darnold – QB USC

-          The Brown have come out with rumors on taking Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Saquon Barkley but I view all those as a smokescreen. John Dorsey is a big fan of “loose lips sink ships” and knows he needs a high floor QB with his first pick. Darnold may not have the ceiling that the other Big 4 QBs have but his floor is stories above them

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Pick 2 – New York Giants

Josh Rosen – QB UCLA

-          The other Los Angeles QB has been my #1 QB and would have been my pick for the Browns since the beginning of last season. His throwing motion prettier than the Mona Lisa and his accuracy is better than Mark Wahlberg in Shooter. Injuries and coachability are concerns but his polish as a passer is enough for Dave Gettleman to pull the trigger. My only hope is that the Giants let him have a hot tub on the sidelines.

Pick 3 – New York Jets

Baker Mayfield – QB Oklahoma

-          I love Baker Mayfield. He’s not the safest QB, he’s not my favorite QB, but goddamn if he isn’t the most fun QB. That “attitude” and the system he ran as a Sooner may scare some GMs but I’m not scared by his off the field issues. He’s a gamer with a chip on his shoulder and I think he is a perfect fit into the culture that the Jets are trying to build in New York.

Pick 4 – Cleveland Browns

Saquon Barkley – RB Penn State

-          This guy is the real deal. I have seen every single snap from Barkley’s career and he is something special. The term generational talent gets thrown around every year when the hype for some prospects goes a little too far, but Saquon is different. This is Ladinian Tomlinson and Kevin Faulk 2.0. He has the ability to change the Browns franchise after being paired with former Rose Bowl competitor Sam Darnold. This 4^th overall pick is going to be highly sought after but I trust in Dorsey’s history of being aggressive and taking the best player available, and I don’t think the signing of Carlos Hyde will affect this pick. Barkley is the bell of the ball and Cleveland won’t let him slip past them.

Pick 5 – Denver Broncos

Josh Allen – QB Wyoming

-          A lot of media members and scouts are treating Allen as a bust before he is even drafted by a team. His accuracy is shockingly poor on the field and that is scaring a lot of teams, but his raw potential and arm strength is astounding. If he can play with actual talent around him, like he will in the NFL, he has the potential to be one of the best QBs in the NFL. Allowing him to sit behind Case Keenum and learn the ins and outs of an NFL playbook and coach up his mechanics would be the best thing for him. I think Elway will love what he sees in Allen and draft him as the future of the Broncos.

Pick 6 – Indianapolis Colts

Bradley Chubb – Edge NC State

-          As the sole premier pass rusher in this class Chubb is a “best player available” pick for a Colts team that doesn’t have much of anything going for them on defense. I could see them going with Quenton Nelson here if they really want to focus on protecting Luck – which means they’ll go with Chubb.

Pick 7 – Tampa Bay

Derwin James – S Florida State

-          The Bucs are absolutely desperate for a safety this year. TJ Ward is already 31 and past his prime and was arrested this past January. James reminded everyone of the player he was touted to be during the second half of the 2017 season and is the best pure safety in the draft. Minkah Fitzpatrick was my previous pick here but is more of a hybrid slot corner that I don’t believe Tampa will value quite as much. Keep Derwin in central Florida.

Pick 8 – Chicago Bears

Quenton Nelson – OG Notre Dame

-          Unlike Indy, the Bears actually value protecting their young franchise QB as well as focusing on the run game. Nelson is on par with Barkley in regards to how safe he is as a prospect. There really isn’t much to say about this pick other than he has the potential to be an All-Pro player for the next 10 years.

Pick 9 – San Francisco

Tremaine Edmunds – LB Virginia Tech

-           I’ll be honest, Tremaine Edmunds is not the best LB in this class. But, he is a 19-year-old freak of nature, the best prospect at LB, and is only behind Saquon in being the best athlete. Edmunds would be a natural fit for the 49ers and he shows the promise to be a really great player and would slide in nicely to replace Reuben Foster. As a bonus, he has the ability to slide to the outside in the case where Foster returns to the team and could be just as good as an outside backer or rusher.

Pick 10 – Oakland Raiders

Roquan Smith – LB Georgia

-          This is the best LB in the class. He is a polished SAM linebacker with some truly great lateral speed and ability to get to the edge. He is a bit small and will need big lineman in front of him to take on blockers but given the ability to roam the field he can perennially lead the NFL in tackles. The Raiders need to replace a diminished linebacking core and given their love for fast players and big lineman he would be a great pick.

Pick 11 – Miami Dolphins

Minkah Fitzpatrick – S/CB Alabama

-          Like the other Florida team, the Dolphins are in need of a safety to roam their secondary.  I like to view Minkah as a FS as compared to the slot corner he played at Alabama and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins agree. They could be looking for a QB here but I think they’ll ride out Tannehill’s contract and wait a little longer on finding his replacement.

Pick 12 – Buffalo Bills

Denzel Ward – CB Ohio State

-          Their biggest need is a QB, but it’s far too early for Jackson or Rudolph. Ward is the best player on the board and fits one of the Bills many needs on defense. Ward was a bit of a disappointment this past season but has all the tools necessary to succeed like pretty much every Ohio State corner these past few years.

Pick 13 – Washington Redskins

Vita Vea – DL Washington

-          Mr. Washington goes to Washington… The Redskins have some holes alone their line and without a top safety on the board I think they’ll take a shot with the big man. A pairing with Jonathan Allen would be a scary idea and this is another natural fit.

Pick 14 – Green Bay

Josh Jackson – CB Iowa

-          Green Bays defense was truly horrid last year and trading Demarius Randall didn’t help. I have watched a lot of Jackson over his career and he is my favorite corner in the draft and I believe he will be this year’s Marcus Peters. He’s the only top corner with length and his ball skills are Peters-esque. It also doesn’t hurt that Iowa prospects seemingly never bust.

Pick 15 – Arizona Cardinals

Mike McGlinchey – OT Notre Dame  

-          The other Notre Dame lineman gets taken here as the top tackle in the draft. As the Cardinals have holes in what seems to be every part of their team they are going to have to rely on controlling the time of possession and running the ball with David Johnson – a lot. Sam Bradford isn’t going to win them many games if he’s broken on the sideline so McGlinchey will have his hands full trying to keep him upright.

Pick 16 – Baltimore Ravens

Rashaan Evans – LB Alabama

-          I liked making this pick better when the Ravens didn’t sign every free agent WR and it was an easy pick for them to go with Calvin Ridley here. Then they had to go and actually make this a difficult pick for me. The Ravens surprisingly don’t actually have many glaring needs, but an inside linebacker to work in coverage alongside CJ Mosley would be a very Ravens picks to make. And a good one too. Evans is exactly what their defense needs and Ozzie Newsome’s connection with Alabama strengthens the likelihood of this pick.

Pick 17 – Los Angeles Chargers

Connor Williams – OT Texas

-           Phillip Rivers only has a handful of years left in the league and protecting him against the dominant pass rushers in their division should be the Chargers’ highest priority. Williams is an athletic and high ceiling prospect who is more raw than McGlinchey but just as valuable as a prospect. This offensive line would be looking scary after this pick.

Pick 18 – Seattle Seahawks

Kolton Miller – OT UCLA

-          Seattle needs a true OT more than anything. Don’t be dumb Seattle.

Pick 19 – Dallas Cowboys                                                                                                         

Calvin Ridley – WR Alabama

-          Friendship with Dez over, Calvin Ridley is my new best friend. You can’t play in the NFL running the ball 60 times a game, as much as Dallas would want to, and the Cowboys need people to catch balls. Ridley is the most polished receiver in this class and the only one I gave a first round grade. This is purely a need pick and hopefully he gets a warm welcome at the draft.

Pick 20 – Detroit Lions

Marcus Davenport – Edge UTSA

-          Pressure was non-existent in Detroit last year and Davenport is packed full of potential. He was on the rise leading into the Senior Bowl but the talk has tapered off since then. Davenport is a big post hype sleeper this year that is locked into the middle of the first round.

Pick 21 – Cincinnati Bengals

Frank Ragnow – OG/OC Arkansas

-          Cincinnati needs to build up their offensive line after loosing key players to free agency these pas few years. Lining him up next to Cordy Glenn on the left side will open up a lot of holes for Joe Mixon and hopefully give a spark back to the Cincy offense. There are injury concerns but his play more than warrants the pick here.

Pick 22 – Buffalo Bills

Mason Rudolph – QB Oklahoma State

-           The Bills need to come out of this draft with a QB and if they can’t move up to take one of the big 4 then they need to reach for Rudolph here. He has the ability to be a great down the field passer but likely needs a redshirt year to work on playing in a pro-style offense. That won’t happen in Buffalo.  

Pick 23 – Los Angeles Rams

Leighton Vander-Esch – LB Boise State

-          The biggest concern for LVE is a neck injury that has caused 5 teams to take him off their board completely, but if the Rams still think highly of him they have a big hole at MLB left by Alec Ogletree. They are building up the best defense in the NFL and this would put them over the top. If he can stay healthy I am genuinely scared for any team that plays them this year.

Pick 24 – Carolina Panthers

Jaire Alexander – CB Louisville

-          Carolinas secondary is not as great as their fans think it is, and they don’t think it’s that good to begin with. Jaire is a bit undersized but I love what he puts out there on tape. He brings an edge to a defense that hasn’t been able to find one after their recent trip to the Super Bowl.

Pick 25 - Tennessee Titans

Harold Landry – Edge Boston College

-          Tennessee needs some more help rushing the passer and the senior seems like a great fit for new head coach Mike Vrabel. He doesn’t have the high ceiling that Chubb or Davenport bring but he doesn’t have many flaws to his game.  Plug him in on the edge and you won’t have to worry about pressure or production.

Pick 26 – Atlanta Falcons

Da’Ron Payne – DT Alabama

-          This honestly feels like a lazy pick. Everyone seems to be projecting the Falcons to take Payne here because of how perfect of a fit it would be. He brings size and speed to a pretty week defensive line for Atlanta. It’s not a sexy pick but he can bust out a lot of production in Dan Quinn’s system early on.

Pick 27 – New Orleans Saints

Mike Gesicki – TE Penn State

-          My Penn State homerism aside, Gesicki is the best TE in this class. He is as pure of a receiver in this class – maybe even better than Ridley – and will be Jimmy Graham 2.0 for Dree Brees. A serious red zone threat that has a knack for catching the long ball, Gesicki is a natural fit for the Saints’ offense.

Pick 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers

Malik Jefferson – LB Texas

-          As a lifelong Steelers fan, I am really torn with what to do with this pick. ILB is far and away the biggest need for this defense but the prospects on the board leave a lot to be desired. Even so, Malik Jefferson fits the build that Tomlin and Colbert have been looking for the past few years. He is extremely athletic but the production at Texas is lacking. The good thing is that Jefferson has the ability to slide into and Edge roll if needed and that positional flexibility might just be what the Steelers need after being plagued with injuries over the past couple years. It’s not my favorite pick but it’s one I would be happy with. Just please don’t pick a running back.

Pick 29 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Dallas Goedert – TE South Dakota

-          If you told me 2 years ago that the Jaguars would be an AFC power house with strengths at every position I would have called you nuts – but here we are. I do need to say to all the naysayers that Blake Bortles is not the problem. Now that that is out of the way we can get to Goedert. His catching ability isn’t quite on par with Gesicki but unlike the Nittany Lion Goedert actually has the ability to block. Mercedes Lewis is older than Tom Coughlin and none of the other TEs on the roster show any potential. This gives Blake another weapon to work with and puts the Jags one step closer to the Super Bowl.

Pick 30 – Minnesota Vikings 

Billy Price – OC/OG Ohio State

-          Like the Seahawks and Cincinnati, I think the Vikings need to go with an offensive lineman during the first round. They have been hampered by injuries and adding protection for new QB Kirk Cousins and future Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook. Adding a great player like Price who can play guard or center would sure up their interior line.

Pick 31 – New England Patriots

Isiah Wynn – OT/OG Georgia

-          This is a very straight forward pick for the Patriots. They need to protect the ageless Tom Brady and they just lost their franchise LT. Wynn might be a bit stronger at guard than tackle at the next level but will do just fine protecting Brady’s blind side.

Pick 32 – Philadelphia Eagles

Derrius Guice – RB LSU

-          Its hard for a Super Bowl champion to improve drastically, especially in the fashion the Eagles won this year, but Guice would bring a whole new gear to their offense. Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement both played well last year but both have big question marks moving forward. Guice is a luxury pick for the Eagle but he will surprise you with how great of a player he is, especially after spending so much time in Saquon Barkley’s shadow. The Eagles don’t pick again until pick 130 so look for them to move down to add a few more picks to the pile.